MODELLING AND FORECASTING PRODUCTION BEHAVIOUR AND IMPORT- EXPORT OF TOTAL SPICES IN TWO MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD

Abstract

A study was conducted in the Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Nadia, West Bangal, India during the year 2012. The objective was to find out trends in area, production, import and export of total spices in India and China. This study also focused on forecasting the cultivated area, production, import and export of spices in India and China using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Time series data covering the period 1961-2009 were used for the study. The results revealed a spectacular simple growth rates for all parameters studied. Using different ARIMA models forecasting values were estimated for area, production, yield, import and export (both in quantity and value) of total spices these two countries for the years to come. The result shows that production of total spices in India and China for the year 2020 is estimated at about 1331 and 115.84 thousands tons from 684 and 32.3 thousand hectares of area, respectively. In case of yield model, the data showed that yield of total spices in the world would would be be about 2.18 tons per hectare in the year 2020 against yield in India (2.54 t/ha) and China (3.33 t/ha). The trade balance of India would be to the tune of US$254 thousand against US$30.35 thousand of China during the same period. Thus the spices sector can play a vital role in the economy of India by fetching more foreign exchange.