IMPLICATIONS OF ASIAN REGION RICE CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL SUPPLY IN THE CONTEXT OF GREEN REVOLUTION

Abstract

This study determines the rank and relative contribution of top rice-producing Asian countries to global rice production using data from 1961 to 2023. The data sparsity and high degree of correlation among the predictor variables posed serious issues that were managed through correlated component regression. Absolute values of standardized regression coefficients determine each country’s share in global rice production, which is then used to compute the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. It analyzes the data between two periods: the first represents the Green Revolution Period (1966-1992) and the second indicates the post-Green Revolution Period (1993-2023). Empirical results show that all countries except Nepal and Cambodia (1966–1992) and Cambodia (1993–2023) had a positive and statistically significant impact on global rice production. During the Green Revolution period, India and China held the top two positions, accounting for nearly 45 percent of the total share. India accounted for 22.75 percent, while China accounted for 22.19 percent of the share. In the post-Green Revolution period, these two countries secured almost 52.19 percent of the share, with China alone holding a 30.03 percent share. A comparison between periods indicates that Myanmar experienced a significant improvement in ranking, moving up by +7 places, followed by Cambodia (+4), Thailand (+2) and Bangladesh (+2). On the other hand, Japan (-7 places) and Indonesia (-4) witnessed the largest declines in rankings. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index value was 1390 during the Green Revolution period; however, in the post-Green Revolution period, it was 1718, indicating a moderate increase of 328 points. The lower Herfindahl-Hirschman Index value (1390) during the Green Revolution period confirms that technological improvement and policy factors significantly contributed to greater geographical variation in the relative importance of each country’s contribution to global rice production. In contrast, during the post-Green Revolution period, the influence of such factors on geographic variation in relative importance seemed to be less pronounced. Our analysis further indicates that climate change variables, such as temperature, have inversely impacted rice production more in the post-Green Revolution period compared to the Green Revolution period. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend (i) policymakers should encourage advanced agricultural technologies and knowledge-sharing, especially in countries such as Nepal, Indonesia and Pakistan to increase their contribution to global rice production and (ii) policies should promote investment in underperforming regions and practice sustainability to minimize over-dependence on dominant producers such as China and India to minimize risks of food security and environmental impacts.